Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
